Month: November 2020

Our county benchmarks will help you watch the 2020 election results like a pro

first_imgWe’re including Montana because of its very important Senate race, where Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock could eke out a victory against Republican Sen. Steve Daines. Montana isn’t expected to be close in the presidential race; polls here have shown the margin in high single digits, which is a dramatic improvement over 2016, but that’s still a steep climb to 50%. Winning in Montana requires running up the score in the college towns (Missoula and Bozeman, in Gallatin County) while staying close in the more blue-collar cities (Billings and Great Falls, in Yellowstone and Cascade Counties, respectively) in order to stave off the heavily red rural counties.NORTH CAROLINA MILWAUKEE14.869/3165/29 FULTON10.673/2668/27 EL PASO11.535/6134/56 COUNTY% OF 2016STATEWIDE VOTEWHAT Dems NEEDTO BREAK 50%2016 PRES.Results LIVINGSTON2.234/6432/62 KALAMAZOO2.655/4253/40 BREVARD3.440/5738/57 SCOTT5.555/4347/45 SARASOTA2.444/5442/54 MIAMI-DADE10.465/3463/34 BROWARD8.868/3166/31 DOUGLAS6.738/6037/55 ARAPAHOE10.954/4453/39 Georgia has not one but two Senate races this year, and modeling to 50% is especially important in this one because state law mandates that if no candidate wins a majority, the top two finishers have to advance to a runoff, both in the special election and the regularly scheduled one. The presidential race isn’t subject to that requirement, but in Georgia, it’s shaping up to be one of the closest races in the nation.One step to winning the Peach State is to run up the score in Atlanta and its closest suburbs. Interestingly, Fulton County, where most of Atlanta is, is also home to a lot of affluent, mostly white areas and isn’t quite as blue as two of its neighboring counties that have larger African American majorities.The other step is to win in the Atlanta area’s affluent, but rapidly diversifying, outer suburbs in Cobb and Gwinnett Counties—preferably in the upper 50s if not higher. (Stacey Abrams hit those same benchmarks above in Cobb and Gwinnett but still fell a smidge short in the 2018 gubernatorial race anyway, thanks to Republican strength in the rural areas and, probably, GOP voter suppression.) For more detail on this pathway, my colleague Steve Singiser has written a full-length piece on what to watch in Georgia.IOWA LAKE2.146/5340/55 POLK3.043/5541/55 – Advertisement – RENO2.141/5628/63 JEFFERSON11.850/4749/42 LEHIGH2.653/4650/45 ADAMS7.051/4650/41 WOODBURY2.845/5537/57 AIKEN3.642/5534/61 INGHAM2.762/3560/33 PICKENS2.329/6821/74 GUILFORD5.461/3758/38 FRANKLIN10.666/3260/34 HARRIS14.661/3954/42 WASHTENAW3.970/2968/27 RAVALLI4.542/5828/66 PHILADELPHIA11.584/1682/15 PINELLAS5.249/4847/48 CHATHAM2.760/3955/40 ORANGE5.862/3560/35 OTTAWA3.033/6431/62 DUVAL4.649/4847/48 There’s no Senate race in Ohio, but we’re including it because of its perennial bellwether status in the presidential race. While Biden’s main task is to crush it in the Democratic strongholds of Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties (Cleveland and Columbus, respectively), you might also keep an eye on more blue-collar counties like Lorain and Mahoning (the latter is home of Youngstown).These were Democratic strongholds in the past and gave Clinton only very narrow wins in 2016, but they now seem poised to snap back significantly with Biden at the top of the ticket. Biden will also want to come close in Lake County, Cleveland’s more affluent affluent suburbs, though it hasn’t moved much in the Democratic direction during the Trump era, unlike a wide variety of suburbs elsewhere in the country.PENNSYLVANIA MONTGOMERY7.161/3858/37 ROCK2.656/4352/41 VOLUSIA2.843/5441/54 LUZERNE2.242/5939/58 Colorado appears to have graduated from swing-state status to safely blue at the presidential level, which is pretty amazing for a state that was red for decades until 2008 (with a brief blip in 1992). But it does have a key Senate race, although Democrat John Hickenlooper is looking pretty likely to defeat Republican Sen. Cory Gardner. With much of the state’s population concentrated in the Front Range, Hickenlooper’s easiest path means winning decisively in Denver and Boulder, winning narrowly in the inner suburbs (Adams, Arapahoe, and Jefferson Counties), and not getting blown out in Colorado Springs (El Paso County) or Denver’s exurbs (Douglas and Weld Counties).FLORIDA SEMINOLE2.449/4847/48 BLACK HAWK4.158/4150/43 BOULDER6.871/2770/22 WAYNE16.268/3166/29 BUTLER3.240/5934/61 LUCAS3.662/3656/38 PINAL5.042/5737/56 PASCO2.639/5837/58 After ages waiting for it, the blessed day has arrived: Texas has finally achieved swing-state status. It has a competitive Senate race, where Democrat MJ Hegar has an outside shot at unseating Republican Sen. John Cornyn, but the main event here is the presidential race, which polling indicates will be very close. Basically, Biden needs to replicate Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 map but perform just a smidge better, which requires dominant performances in Houston (Harris County), Dallas, Austin (Travis County), and El Paso, while squeaking out wins in Fort Worth (Tarrant County) and Austin’s suburbs (Williamson County), and coming close in Dallas’s outer suburbs in Collin County. Steve Singiser has also gone into more detail about the key counties in Texas.WISCONSIN ERIE2.049/4946/48 SHAWNEE6.457/4044/47 FORSYTH2.429/7024/71 CLAYTON2.388/1284/14 SUMTER2.063/3755/43 FLORENCE2.854/4546/51 LINN7.558/3950/41 CHESTER4.455/4452/43 BUCKS5.651/4948/48 FORSYTH3.856/4253/43 YUMA2.052/4746/47 OUTAGAMIE3.245/5541/53 LEWIS & CLARK7.056/4141/48 LeXINGTON5.837/6029/66 COUNTY% OF 2016STATEWIDE VOTEWHAT Dems NEEDTO BREAK 50%2016 PRES.Results POTTAWATTAMIE2.744/5536/57 LAKE2.651/4936/57 RACINE3.249/5145/50 COUNTY% OF 2016STATEWIDE VOTEWHAT Dems NEEDTO BREAK 50%2016 PRES.Results The perennial swing state of Iowa has both one of the nation’s closest presidential races and a key Senate race, though Democratic Senate candidate Theresa Greenfield seems to be running just ahead of Biden. As you can see from the table, most of the state’s small cities are modestly blue, with only Iowa City (in Johnson County) a Democratic stronghold. But Biden and Greenfield need to win basically all of them, except for the redder Council Bluffs and Sioux City (Pottawattamie and Woodbury Counties, respectively), in order to compensate for the much redder rural counties. Steve also has a deep dive into the key counties in Iowa if you’d like to explore further.KANSAS JOHNSON24.657/4044/47 CHEROKEE2.727/7122/72 LARIMER7.049/4848/43 MESA2.729/6928/64 YORK3.436/6333/62 MACOMB8.744/5642/54 STARK3.245/5439/56 BERKELEY3.847/5039/56 Kansas is here because of its competitive Senate race, although a good night will also see the Sunflower State pull into the single digits in its presidential race. Leading the way in Kansas’s slow move toward becoming a swing state is Johnson County, where most of Kansas City’s affluent suburbs are located. This was long the state’s stronghold of mainstream Republicanism, but Democrat Laura Kelly won the county 55-38 en route to her victory in 2018’s gubernatorial race.Democratic Senate hopeful Barbara Bollier will also need to dominate in Kansas City, Lawrence, and Topeka (Wyandotte, Douglas, and Shawnee Counties, respectively) and squeak out a narrow win in Wichita (Sedgwick County, the state’s second most populous county) because the entire rest of the state is very red.MICHIGAN GWINNETT8.055/4350/44 TARRANT7.550/4943/52 Pennsylvania has no Senate race this year, but as usual, it’s one of the linchpins (or you might even call it a keystone, if you will) of the presidential race. Biden needs to do what Clinton narrowly failed to do in 2016, which is to run up the score not just in the big cities but also in Philadelphia’s suburbs (Delaware, Montgomery, and to a lesser extent, Bucks and Chester Counties). That would compensate for the right turn that the counties outside of Pittsburgh in southwestern Pennsylvania, like Westmoreland, have taken. While Lackawanna County (where Biden’s hometown of Scranton is located) is too small to appear on the list, its next-door neighbor Luzerne County is also worth watching to see if Biden’s favorite-son status turns around this large Obama-to-Trump county.SOUTH CAROLINA OAKLAND13.953/4651/43 In Michigan, it’s worth watching both the presidential and Senate races, though polls suggest Biden and Democratic Sen. Gary Peters are on track to win by mid to high single-digits. Detroit (in Wayne County) is key, though the real impact here might not be its vote share rather turnout—and specifically, whether it can exceed 16.2% of the state’s total vote, its share in 2016. (In 2012, by contrast, Wayne was 17.2% of Michigan’s total en route to Barack Obama’s 9-point win, a figure similar to Biden’s current polling lead in the state.)You’ll also want to keep an eye on Macomb County in Detroit’s blue-collar suburbs, which is one of the nation’s largest counties to flip from Obama to Trump. Clinton did so poorly here that Biden doesn’t need to actually flip it back in order to win statewide, but this is one of those areas that seems tailor-made for a big Biden bounce back.MONTANA DALLAS2.449/4941/51 GENESEE4.154/4552/43 WARREN2.135/6429/66 BERKS3.046/5343/52 DEKALB7.784/1579/16 PUEBLO2.847/5146/46 SEDGWICK16.149/4736/54 COBB8.153/4548/46 MOHAVE3.128/7222/73 STATEWIDE—50/4935/56 JOHNSON4.973/2565/27 WELD4.935/6234/57 GALLATIN10.760/3745/44 DUBUQUE3.254/4546/47 STATEWIDE—50/4946/47 BUTLER2.337/6224/69 MISSOULA12.167/3052/37 SILVER BOW3.367/3252/39 COUNTY% OF 2016STATEWIDE VOTEWHAT Dems NEEDTO BREAK 50%2016 PRES.Results COUNTY% OF 2016STATEWIDE VOTEWHAT Dems NEEDTO BREAK 50%2016 PRES.Results SHEBOYGAN2.042/5638/54 RICHLAND8.072/2564/31 STATEWIDE—50/4947/48 The benchmarks are a solution to a problem you may have experienced: watching a race that’s expected to be close but, in the early going, suddenly finding that your preferred candidate is losing when you look at the total numbers. If you dig into county-level reporting, however, you might notice that mostly the smaller, rural counties are reporting first. To do that, you need to know the names of the larger counties you should actually watch, and that’s one thing that the benchmarks do.The other way the benchmarks help you is that when the larger counties start reporting, you can use them to see if the numbers that they’re reporting are coming in at the right level for your preferred candidate. That way, you can get a good early sense of how the race is going, before a majority of the votes have reported (which, again, is especially important in states where the rural areas tend to report first).- Advertisement – KENT6.447/5045/48 UNION2.235/6232/63 Wisconsin, of course, was scene of one of the biggest heartbreakers in the 2016 election and then saw a similarly close race in the 2018 gubernatorial election, though with much better results for Democrats. At least according to current polling, Biden looks to be winning the Badger State much more easily, but the bare minimum he needs to clear the hurdle here is to hit the 70s in Milwaukee and Madison (Dane County), keep it close to 50-50 in the state’s smaller blue-collar cities like Racine, Kenosha, and Oshkosh (Winnebago County), and just keep from getting totally embarrassed in conservative suburbs like Waukesha County (which, contrary to what you’ve heard, isn’t necessarily that crucial for winning).Make sure to join us at Daily Kos Elections on Nov. 3 starting at 6 PM ET for our complete coverage of election night! BUNCOMBE2.957/3954/40 North Carolina has not just a very competitive presidential race and a key Senate race, but also a contested gubernatorial race, though Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is favored to win reelection. Biden and Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham will need to hit the 60% mark in almost all of the state’s major cities in order to win statewide, considering how red much of the rural areas are (North Carolina does have a number of heavily Black rural counties in its northeast, though they’re all too small to register on this chart). One smaller city to keep an eye on is Wilmington (in New Hanover County), a longtime conservative stronghold where Cooper won in 2016 and that may be poised to flip at the presidential level.OHIO WASHINGTON2.631/6927/67 COUNTY% OF 2016STATEWIDE VOTEWHAT Dems NEEDTO BREAK 50%2016 PRES.Results GASTON2.035/6332/64 STATEWIDE—49/4848/43 WILLIAMSON2.349/4842/51 STATEWIDE—50/4945/48 MARICOPA60.250/4945/48 LORAIN2.554/4648/48 COUNTY% OF 2016STATEWIDE VOTEWHAT Dems NEEDTO BREAK 50%2016 PRES.Results BROWN4.345/5441/52 MONTGOMERY4.753/4647/48 South Carolina may end up with a single-digit presidential race, but the real story here is the Senate contest, where Democrat Jamie Harrison is neck and neck with Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham. South Carolina is unique among all the states we’re looking at in that even its most populous county (Greenville) is a red county. To compensate for that, Harrison will need a dominant win in Charleston and come close in its suburbs (Berkeley and Dorchester Counties).One other source of strength for Harrison that doesn’t show up on the list is that South Carolina has a large number of Black-majority rural counties that run in a belt across the state’s middle; individually, these counties aren’t very populous but taken together they make up much of the state’s 6th Congressional District. Orangeburg is one of the largest of these counties (it’s 1.9% of the state’s total), and Harrison would need to be in the mid-70s here to be on track to win statewide.There’s also a special caveat for the Palmetto State: Harrison and his allies have been spending heavily to boost Constitution Party candidate Bill Bledsoe as a way of peeling off conservative voters who feel Graham hasn’t been sufficiently loyal to Trump. (Bledsoe dropped out a month ago and endorsed Graham, but his name will still be on the ballot.) If this gambit is successful, Harrison’s win target may fall a few points shy of 50%.TEXAS One of the drawbacks of a simple method like this one is that swings don’t occur uniformly across an entire state. One recent election where we found this out the hard way was 2016, where Hillary Clinton, in many states, actually hit most of the large-county benchmarks that I calculated, but where she came up short in the many rural counties that are too small for inclusion on these lists and where she essentially died of a thousand small cuts.Another potential problem here is that in urban counties, a candidate can hit the correct benchmarks in terms of percentage of vote share but fall off the pace in terms of turnout, as happened in Milwaukee and Detroit in 2016. The opposite is also possible: In last year’s race for governor in Kentucky, Democrat Andy Beshear fell below his benchmarks but still won by running up huge raw vote totals in the cities. That’s why the benchmark for each county’s share of the state’s total votes is important data, though unfortunately it’s hard to tell whether you’ve hit the right mark on turnout until all the votes have been counted.The biggest potential difficulty of all, though, has been magnified by the pandemic and Donald Trump. We know that Democrats prefer mail and early voting while Republicans prefer to cast their ballots on Election Day. Each of these different bucks of votes, however, are generally reported at different times, with early votes and some mail votes typically appearing first, followed by Election Day votes, and then later-arriving mail votes.- Advertisement – STATEWIDE—49/4947/49 DOUGLAS4.275/2262/29 LANCASTER4.040/5737/56 COUNTY% OF 2016STATEWIDE VOTEWHAT Dems NEEDTO BREAK 50%2016 PRES.Results MAHONING2.155/4449/46 LA CROSSE2.155/4351/41 HAMILTON7.459/4053/42 WYANDOTTE4.174/2561/32 HORRY6.338/6130/67 WESTMORELAND3.035/6533/64 The way this all works is that for each table, you’ll see three columns of numbers. The left one is the percentage of the state’s total votes that come from each particular county. (They include only the counties that represent 2% or more of a state’s total vote, so you can weed out the clutter, though collectively, these small counties can add up—more on that below.)The middle column is the target the Democratic candidate should be shooting for, usually in order to shoot for 49% to 50% statewide and the barest possible majority. Finally, the right-hand column is the 2016 result, so you understand the baseline for the current 2020 estimates.This all operates at the level of rough estimates, just for the benefit of advanced election-watchers. Actual professional campaigns use much more precise and granular information for setting targets, often at the precinct level and relying on voter file data.- Advertisement – CUYAHOGA11.071/2865/30 DENTON3.344/5437/57 GREENVILLE10.243/5335/59 NORTHAMPTON2.349/5146/50 CHARLESTON8.459/3751/43 STATEWIDE—49/4947/47 SPARTANBURG5.841/5733/63 COUNTY% OF 2016STATEWIDE VOTEWHAT Dems NEEDTO BREAK 50%2016 PRES.Results MONTGOMERY2.329/7022/73 CASCADE6.950/5035/57 DENVER11.975/2474/19 CUMBERLAND2.041/5738/56 STATEWIDE—50/4945/50 COUNTY% OF 2016STATEWIDE VOTEWHAT Dems NEEDTO BREAK 50%2016 PRES.Results STATEWIDE—49/4941/55 NEW HANOVER2.449/4846/49 MECKLENBURG10.065/3262/33 STATEWIDE—49/4946/50 YORK5.444/5236/58 LEE3.540/5838/58 POLK14.860/3852/40 COCONINO2.360/3554/35 ANDERSON3.834/6426/70 STORY3.259/3651/38 BEAUFORT3.749/4941/55 WINNEBAGO2.947/5243/50 DORCHESTER3.046/5038/56 COUNTY% OF 2016STATEWIDE VOTEWHAT Dems NEEDTO BREAK 50%2016 PRES.Results COUNTY% OF 2016STATEWIDE VOTEWHAT Dems NEEDTO BREAK 50%2016 PRES.Results DURHAM3.381/1778/18 PIMA16.258/4153/40 ALLEGHENY10.759/4056/39 STATEWIDE—50/4943/52 FT. BEND2.958/4251/45 DALLAS8.568/3261/35 FLATHEAD9.543/5728/64 BEXAR6.661/3854/41 YELLOWSTONE14.046/5131/58 COLLIN4.046/5339/56 TRAVIS5.273/2466/27 STATEWIDE—49/4943/51 STATEWIDE—50/4942/51 We could therefore see results that initially lean Democratic, then shift toward the GOP, then tilt back toward Democrats. But that’s just one potential arc. Because every state has different rules that govern its vote-counting procedures, and because partisan preferences for voting method are by no means set in stone, the flow of results could vary distinctly from state to state.One last caveat: Two states that you might be looking for, but unfortunately couldn’t be included, are Alaska and Maine, both of which have competitive Senate races. Alaska simply doesn’t have counties, so there are no county-level benchmarks to be set. (You might be able to find reporting by legislative district if you look at the state’s elections site, though.) Maine does have counties, but as with the rest of New England, election data in Maine is reported at the town level, so if you went looking for “Cumberland County” or “Penobscot County” real-time data, you’d be very disappointed. (Some of the state’s biggest cities include Portland, Bangor, Auburn, and Lewiston, if you want to look at town-level data.) WAKE11.160/3657/37 CUMBERLAND2.759/3956/40 EL PASO2.476/2369/26 HENRY2.455/4550/46 SUMMIT4.758/4152/43 DANE10.474/2570/23 YAVAPAI4.436/6331/62 MARATHON2.342/5838/56 STATEWIDE—49/4936/56 WAUKESHA8.037/6233/60 PALM BEACH7.058/4156/41 COUNTY% OF 2016STATEWIDE VOTEWHAT Dems NEEDTO BREAK 50%2016 PRES.Results KENOSHA2.651/4947/47 COUNTY% OF 2016STATEWIDE VOTEWHAT Dems NEEDTO BREAK 50%2016 PRES.Results DELAWARE4.962/3859/37 Hey, did you know there’s a close race in Florida this year? I know, that’s so weird; it’s never happened before! Ordinarily, the path to victory for Democrats in Florida means running in the 60s in the three mega-counties of the Miami area (Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach) as well as That Other Orange County (the one that has Orlando in it). It also means holding serve in the St. Petersburg and Jacksonville areas (Pinellas and Duval Counties, respectively), while riding out the GOP onslaught in the state’s smaller counties.This year’s number mix might be a little different, though, based on district-level polling we’ve seen, which has seen Biden underperforming Clinton somewhat in the Cuban community in Miami but dramatically overperforming Clinton in the “I-4 Corridor” suburbs like Pinellas and Seminole Counties.GEORGIA LEAVENWORTH2.646/5133/58 HILLSBOROUGH6.354/4552/45 Let’s talk further about the methodology here. If you’re a regular consumer of our county benchmarks, you might know that in the past it’s usually been a very simple math process. For instance, in Arizona, Clinton’s 45/48 result in 2016 would be turned into a 50/43 target in 2020, accomplished by adding 5 to the 2016 Democratic vote share in each county and subtracting 5 from the GOP vote share in each county.However, 50/43 isn’t a very realistic target, because we have a more conventional election this year, with less-disliked candidates, and it’s highly unlikely that third-party candidates this year will take 7% of the total vote, as they did four years ago. The third-party vote might still end up at about 2%, though, so I’ll generally be modeling to either 50/49 or 49/49 this year.What I’ve therefore done this year is create an intermediate step (which I’m not showing in the table, to minimize onscreen clutter, but I’ll describe the process to make it more transparent), where, in Arizona, I would first add 3 to both sides of the 2016 result, so 45/48 becomes 48/51, and the two-party share gets bumped up to 99%, which is more typical in most elections.It’s possible, of course, that the split in 2016 wasn’t exactly half-and-half; in other words, the number of Democrats defecting to the Greens or Libertarians in 2016 might not have been equal to the number of Republicans defecting to Libertarians or Evan McMullin’s campaign. There’s no good way to figure that out with any certainty, though, so I’m simply splitting the difference equally.Only then do I switch over to the old method, where I would add 2 to the Democratic side and subtract 2 to the GOP side, to bring the target vote share to 50/49 that would get Joe Biden and/or Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly across the finish line by the barest margin possible.If you apply this method to Pima County (home of Tucson), you’d see that in 2016, the county went 53/40 for Clinton. After the intermediate step, that becomes 56/43 for Clinton. Adding 2 to the Democratic side and subtracting 2 from the Republican side, that gets turned into a 58/41 target for 2018. As you’ll note, no correction is needed in the state’s largest county, Maricopa County; that’s because more than half of the state’s population lives there, so naturally it’s going to have a very similar vote share percentage breakdown as the state as a whole.COLORADOlast_img read more

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer: Manchester United continue to back manager despite Istanbul Basaksehir defeat | Football News

first_img Football writer and United We Stand editor Andy Mitten says Manchester United will use Sir Alex Ferguson as an example to stick by manager Solskjaer Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, Manchester United manager ‘United backing Solskjaer but things must improve’Sky Sports News reporter James Cooper says Manchester United still support Solskjaer despite the consecutive defeats to Arsenal and Istanbul Basaksehir.“From what I’m being told, Manchester United still see Ole Gunnar Solskjaer as a long-term project and somebody who should be given the backing and support to do this job. I don’t think anything’s changed.“What’s their reaction to the last couple of days? I think it’s not good. A week ago, we were all saying what an amazing coach and how things have changed under Solskjaer.“He out-thought RB Leipzig when they won 5-0 at Old Trafford and everything seemed to be changing. The flipside to that is, how on earth did those players beat Leipzig 5-0 and then put in the performances that we’ve seen over the last couple of games? Ole Gunnar Solskjaer United are currently 15th in the Premier League after losing 1-0 against Arsenal on Sunday, but the club has no plans to replace Solskjaer – despite reports linking former Tottenham manager Mauricio Pochettino with the role at Old Trafford.Solskjaer laughed off suggestions his job is under threat after the defeat in Turkey.“I decline to comment on such a thing,” he said in his post-match press conference. “Of course, it’s early on and opinions are out there all the time.- Advertisement – – Advertisement – Solskjaer refused to comment on his future at the club following their 2-1 Champions League defeat to Istanbul Basaksehir “You’ve got to stay strong. I’m employed by the club to do a job and I do that to the best of my ability with my staff.”United return to Premier League action on Saturday away at Everton, who have also lost their last two matches against Southampton and Newcastle. 0:53 0:52 Ole Gunnar Solskjaer retains the support of Manchester United and is still seen as a long-term appointment, Sky Sports News understands.Solskjaer has come under fresh scrutiny in the wake of Wednesday’s 2-1 defeat at Istanbul Basaksehir in the Champions League – their first in the competition this season.- Advertisement – – Advertisement – Former England manager Steve McClaren says Solskjaer ‘needs to be ruthless’ if he is to alleviate the pressure surrounding his job 0:53 Former Manchester United assistant manager Steve McClaren says Solskjaer must be “ruthless” with his underperforming players.“Ole’s under pressure. He needs clarity, a clear head and good support staff to tell him the truth,” McClaren told Sky Sports News.“But he also needs to be ruthless, and those players that aren’t performing, he has to somehow turn that around. Ole and his staff must take responsibility because there’s been that many systems over the last few weeks. There’s been a change of personnel – is he trying to keep everybody happy and give everybody a game?“Those players have to take responsibility also; they’re not doing it game in, game out. Yes, Ole takes responsibility, but the players also must look at themselves.“The game against Everton on Saturday is pivotal but he’s been through this situation before – the speculation and everybody calling for his head – but himself, the team and the staff have pulled themselves through and got a result they needed.” Ole Gunnar Solskjaer “There are major question marks. You saw Solskjaer last night – he was furious with what happened in Istanbul. He protected his players, didn’t criticise them too much. But I think you can see that he’s expecting a big turnaround against Everton at the weekend.“We have been here before but most Manchester United fans would tell you, when he needs a result, he gets one. But going to Everton at the weekend won’t be easy. November is a sticky time for managers post Sir Alex Ferguson.“This time last year, there were the same questions against Solskjaer. The message from United is that they’re backing Solskjaer. He is the man for the long-term, but things do need to improve on the pitch.”McClaren: Ole must be ruthlesslast_img read more

Investors see an ‘All clear’ for a reopening rally. Are they right this time?

first_imgTraders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.NYSE The history of such sudden bursts of relief among the public shows they’re not typically the greatest entry points but also far from automatic rally killers.Nearly $45 billion in net inflows rushed toward equity funds in the latest week, which Bank of America calls an all-time record.As the chart here shows, the last comparable intake was in January 2018, a month when a furious rally crested in the afterglow of a long-awaited bullish catalyst, the passage of the Trump tax cut weeks earlier. The market soon skidded into a jarring correction, then a choppy sideways phase, before returning to those highs within months. Bank of America global strategist Michael Hartnett sees these flows as well as the synchronous surge in global equity markets to overbought extremes as a hint of a culmination process for this advance getting underway.“We are sellers-into-strength into vaccine,” he says, based on “peak positioning, peak policy, peak profits likely coming months,” comparing it to the 2018 pattern.Is it a market top?Members of the American Association of Individual Investors have been among the more stubborn groups in mistrusting the market since the March bottom with below-average bullish sentiment in the group’s weekly for a record stretch – until last week.Bulls in the survey, which runs through Tuesday each week, jumped from 38% to 55% – also the highest reading since January 2018. The history of similar jumps in AAII bulls since the survey started in 1987 show somewhat below-average – but still positive – S&P 500 returns in the coming months.SentimenTrader, a research service that analyzes the market implications of investor attitudes and behavior, looked at prior dates when the AAII bullish percentage jumped more than seven percentage points and more than $7 billion went into equity funds.The combination of factors top-ticked the 2003-2007 bull market, but aside from that these were not particularly bad times to be buying stocks, with respectable forward returns extending out six months to a year.In other words, when investors get enthusiastic, it can mean the market is due to cool off a bit and perhaps becomes less able to shake off scary headlines. But it doesn’t pay to immediately assume a bullish public will automatically be proved wrong. Not every rally is hated, not all upside progress happens in ironic repudiation of the consensus, not every trade is the “pain trade.”Another overshoot like June?Admittedly, the market’s strength last week in other ways seemed incongruous. The gains were distinctly led by cyclical stocks geared tightly to a reopened economy, even as the daily news flow was of an alarming Covid-case surge and re-imposed business restrictions and social-distancing orders.A buyer of Monday’s opening pop with the S&P 500 over 3600 for the first time is still underwater even as the S&P gained more than 2% on the week, as that buying frenzy faded and the huge growth stocks that dominate the index fizzled.Monday was the single worst day on record for the momentum investing theme, and money overall flowed from growth to value, large stocks to small, stay-at-home plays to back-to-work names, year-to-date winners to laggards and defensive to cyclical.If the market’s message can be taken at face value, then it’s encouraging for the economic outlook and supportive of the equity rally. But the day-to-day action was erratic enough – looking at times like automated investment-factor pinball – that it’s tough to say for sure.Can these shifts be read as the market resolutely looking beyond the immediate slowdown threat of a winter virus outbreak toward a moment in early 2021 when treatments and vaccines liberate the economy? Or was this another overshoot of reopening enthusiasm as we saw in early June before a market setback and a return to the shelter of the mega-cap growth darlings?This is the debate last week set up for investors to engage over the coming weeks.Aside from sentiment and equity flows getting a bit giddy, the market’s underpinnings are hard to fault too much. The rally has been broad in recent weeks, showing urgency by buyers, though this is most predictive of strength beyond the next month or so.Earnings forecasts for early 2021 are on the rise and the S&P’s multi-month sideways churn has allowed profits to do some catching up to prices, leaving the market looking not cheap but a bit less richly valued than in midsummer.It’s tough for stocks to encounter too much lasting trouble when credit markets are strong enough that junk-bond yields fell below 5% for the first time. Frothy, perhaps, but free of financial stress.And of course, seasonal patterns are favorable — which doesn’t necessarily change just because most investors are now in a full sprint, intent on catching a year-end rally. Wised-up market watchers are quick to sneer and jeer when small investors start to cheer a stock rally.And cheer they did last week, reacting to a clear election result and encouraging news on Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine trials with an emotional burst of buying at Monday’s open, the largest inflow for equity funds in years and one of the biggest jumps in retail-investor optimism on record.Given that the crowd is known to be wrong at extremes, skeptics last week quickly seized on this evidence that the public perceived “All clear” as a warning that fuel for further market gains was running low.- Advertisement – There’s no doubt that investors who had stayed in a defensive crouch ahead of the “known unknowns” of the presidential election and vaccine-development efforts before finally grabbing for stocks last week on what seemed like a moment of clarity ended up buying much higher than they could have.When the S&P 500 opened higher by some 3% to start Monday, it was 11% above than it closed just ten days earlier, when all the talk was of “uncertainty” and downside risk. And this, just two weeks after we made the case that investors were fearful enough to set up a late-year rebound attempt. One can understand folks want in on a fourth-quarter rally, but the S&P is already up 6.6% this quarter, more than the average gain for the October-December period.Yet just because they paid up for having waited doesn’t mean they bought a market top.- Advertisement – – Advertisement – – Advertisement –last_img read more

Parler, TikTok, OnlyFans contend for Facebook’s social throne

first_imgWith the uptick in post-election sign ups, Parler saw its total registered members rise from 4.5 million last week to approximately 8 million now, according to a statement from Parler COO Jeffrey Wernick. In terms of active users, that figure has grown from 500,000 active devices two weeks ago to more than 4 million. Like Facebook and Twitter, Parler offers users standard social media features — there’s a feed where you see posts, photos and videos from the users you follow. Parler’s biggest draw is how it’s positioned itself as the antithesis to Facebook and Twitter. “Parler is a non-biased, free speech social media focused on protecting user’s rights,” the app’s description reads on the App Store. Parler, however, is not the first social media app to come around actively catering specifically to conservatives. Four years ago, there was Gab, a similar app with the exact same proposition. Gab grew until it was tied to the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, in which 11 people died. The shooter, Robert Gregory Bowers, posted on his Gab page an hour prior to the shooting.After the shooting, Gab was ditched by its hosting provider and payment processors, forcing the service to go offline, and it never recovered. With a hyper-conservative user base, Parler will have to walk the tightrope of giving its users free speech while preventing their online activity from culminating in an offline event that forces the app to shut down. DiscordAnother fast-growing social app is Discord, which lets users create “servers” where friends can hang out in text-focused chat rooms or on voice or video calls. The app is especially popular among video gamers, who use the voice and video call features to chat with their friends while gaming together online. Discord has seen its usage grow to more than 100 million monthly active users, up nearly 79% from 56 million last November, according to the company. Discord claims it is not a social network but rather a communications service as it is fundamentally different from other social apps in that it does not run ads or rely on an algorithmic feed to show users content. Instead, Discord makes money by charging users for its Nitro $9.99 per month subscription service that offers users more features. Discord may not consider itself a social media app, but Facebook clearly sees a threat. More and more, Facebook has put an emphasis on making video games a key part of its service, offering live streaming services, cloud gaming, and 50-person group video calls. OnlyFansOnlyFans is the only one of these social media threats that does not actually offer a mobile app. That’s because OnlyFans has become the go-to spot for users to sell original adult content, which Apple bans from the App Store.Despite not having an app, OnlyFans has grown tremendously in the last year. It was mentioned in a rap verse by Beyonce earlier this year, and TikTok and Instagram users frequently post links directing their followers to their OnlyFans accounts. OnlyFans hasn’t said how many monthly active users it has, but the app has 75 million total users and 1 million creators, which is up from 30 million users and 450,000 creators in May. Although OnlyFans is known primarily for being used to subscribe to and purchase adult content, there are some who use the app to sell subscriptions and post non-pornographic content. If OnlyFans continues to wrack up users, it could become the de facto spot for users who want a paid social media experience free of ads. OnlyFans poses is a unique challenge. Facebook has banned porn on its services throughout its history, and it would not be allowed to have an iOS app if it suddenly decided to change its policies. By going the adult content route, OnlyFans has seemingly built itself a moat that prevents Facebook from copycatting its services the way it has with Snapchat and TikTok. – Advertisement – TikTok and Douyin, its Chinese counterpart, together claimed 980 million monthly active users in September, up from 670 million a year prior, according to data from App Annie. That puts the app on pace to surpass the 1 billion MAU mark in 2021.Facebook has taken note of TikTok’s fast-paced growth, and in August, it responded with the global launch of Reels, a TikTok copycat feature available on Instagram. Just as Facebook was able to stave off Snapchat by bringing stories to Instagram, it is now taking the same approach to the threat of TikTok. Besides Facebook, TikTok also faces regulatory challenges due to security concerns due to its parent company ByteDance, which is based in China. Although TikTok was able to successfully navigate the threat of being shut down by President Donald Trump, it is still unclear what will happen to the app under the Biden administration. A Biden technology advisor to the transition on Tuesday said it was “too early to say” the incoming administration’s view on TikTok.Parler- Advertisement – Taking on Facebook is no small task, and many apps have failed in this endeavor. Facebook counts more than 3 billion monthly users across its numerous services, including Instagram and WhatsApp. No other social media platform is even close. Additionally, the company has fended off many would-be challengers, often by copying their key features and using them to keep users from leaving.But newcomers keep trying. Here are four to watch:TikTokPerhaps the biggest threat to Facebook’s social media dominance is TikTok, the wildly popular user-generated video app of Chinese origin. The app shows users a never-ending feed of videos of other users dancing, singing, cracking jokes or putting to use fascinating augmented-reality visual effects. Over the last few years, TikTok has emerged as one of the most popular apps for teenage and young adult users on the internet. – Advertisement – In the aftermath of the election, millions of users rushed to sign up for Parler, an up-and-coming social media app that has quickly become a hub for conservatives seeking refuge from what they believe is censorship from Facebook and Twitter. Those companies have labeled or hidden posts from President Trump and others disputing the results of the 2020 presidential election.This rush of sign ups launched Parler into the top spot on Apple’s App Store list of free apps earlier this week. The surge is reminiscent of other social media upstarts that tried to exploit key markets where Facebook was lacking, like Snapchat among teens or TikTok for short-form video.- Advertisement –last_img read more

Altior on course for Betfair Tingle Creek | Racing News

first_img“He looked quite dreamy out there today, but I had to use him as a pacemaker. He enjoyed himself, but he is better aiming at something. He is miles better when he is aiming at a fence.“When you see him schooling, it’s frightening and you think you should be aiming at the King’s Stand not the Tingle Creek, he is so quick. Nico might enjoy it, but I certainly don’t. He is just brilliant, and that lights his fire.”Henderson has made no secret of his regret at running Altior in the 1965 Chase last term, with testing conditions and the step up to two miles and five furlongs taking its toll when tackling Cyrname – who is the highest-rated jumper in training.- Advertisement – The Seven Barrows handler added: “The start of last season was a complete disaster, and I’ve said ever since we shouldn’t have run. The ground was diabolical – and you didn’t need that head-to-head, with both having their first run of the season.“You would have had a prep race first, and we hadn’t had a racecourse gallop, and it bottomed him.”Last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup runner-up Santini was also in action at Newbury, working with Ladbrokes Trophy entry Beware The Bear.De Boinville was seemingly hard at work aboard the eight-year-old in his spin, but Henderson was unconcerned as he reports Santini to be another who shines when presented with an obstacle, rather than working on the level.He said: “He had an entry in the Betfair Chase. When he came in, that is what we were aiming at.“But I never really thought that was his sort of track, and I don’t think Kempton is either – which makes life quite difficult because he is a horse that wants a big, galloping track and he wants some fences to light him up.“If you saw him schooling the other morning, he was electric, but he doesn’t do an awful lot in between.”Henderson is still planning to head to Aintree next month with Santini, before a possible defence of his Cotswold Chase crown in January and then the Denman Chase in February.The trainer added: “The Many Clouds is where I think we will aim for first, as there really is no three-mile galloping track for him. If he went to the Many Clouds, you have then got the Cotswold Chase and the Denman back here.” A splint issue derailed Altior’s Queen Mother Champion Chase defence at Cheltenham in March, but Henderson believes the brilliant two-miler is now back to his best.Altior worked with Champion Hurdle heroine Epatante on Tuesday morning – and while Nico de Boinville’s mount came off second best at the end of the gallop, Henderson described his role as that of a “pacemaker” for his fellow stable star.He said: “He is good and is heading for the Tingle Creek. He loves his jumping. If you would have seen him on Thursday, it was terrifying. He just jumped fences.- Advertisement – Altior is firmly on course for next month’s Betfair Tingle Creek Chase after satisfying trainer Nicky Henderson in his Newbury gallop.The 10-year-old is on something of a retrieval mission this term after relinquishing his unbeaten record over obstacles when beaten by Cyrname at Ascot last November, and then taking time to recover from those exertions before returning with victory in the Game Spirit Chase in February.- Advertisement – – Advertisement –last_img read more

Some hospital workers had SARS virus without illness

first_img In addition, levels of antibodies to SARS Co-V were significantly lower in the workers who remained asymptomatic than in those who fell ill, the article says. “These observations suggest that the extent of exposure to SARS in persons who remained asymptomatic may have been lower, possibly resulting in a lower viral load of SARS-CoV, associated with less severe symptoms,” the report states. This possible association needs to be tested in animal studies, the authors add. Three earlier studies turned up no evidence of asymptomatic SARS infections, while two studies in Hong Kong did find some cases, though the rates were lower than in this study, the researchers say. The investigators found no difference between the pneumonic SARS patients and the asymptomatic workers in age, glove use, handwashing, and closeness or time of contact with SARS patients. However, three of the six asymptomatic workers had worn N95 masks, whereas only 8% of the pneumonic SARS patients had used masks, a significant difference. The initial cases at the hospital involved three patients admitted to three wards in early March 2003, before the SARS coronavirus (Co-V) was identified. The first patient brought SARS from Hong Kong, and the second patient was the first patient’s nurse. The third patient was admitted for other health problems, but shared a room with patient 2 and became infected. Of the 80 workers, 45 (56%) had positive serum samples for antibodies to SARS Co-V. Thirty-seven of the 45 (82%) were classified as having pneumonic SARS, 2 (4%) as having subclinical SARS, and 6 (13%) as having asymptomatic infection, the report says. Patient 1 arrived Mar 1. By Mar 6, healthcare workers were using N95 masks, gowns, and gloves when nursing patient 1 and any other suspected SARS patients. But since SARS was not suspected in patients 2 and 3, workers caring for them initially did not use protection. Jul 7, 2005 (CIDRAP News) – Some healthcare workers who were exposed to SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) early in the epidemic became infected without ever falling ill, according to a recent report in Emerging Infectious Diseases. The researchers identified 105 staff members who had worked in the three affected hospital wards between Mar 1 and 22 and had contact with any of the three patients. Eighty of these responded to a questionnaire and consented to a serologic test. Six of 80 (7.5%) healthcare workers exposed to SARS patients in a Singapore hospital had asymptomatic infections, according to the report by Annelies Wilder-Smith of Tan Tock Seng Hospital in Singapore and her colleagues with National Healthcare Group and Singapore General Hospital. They studied healthcare workers exposed to patients with SARS in the first 22 days of the outbreak, before the hospital began infection control measures. Because the cases occurred before SARS diagnostic tests were available, the researchers could not determine whether the asymptomatic workers had shed the SARS virus during their infection. Wilder-Smith A, Teleman MD, Heng BH, et al. Asymptomatic SARS coronavirus infection among healthcare workers, Singapore. Emerg Infect Dis 2005;11(7):1142-5 [Full text]last_img read more

Tibet reports avian flu outbreak in chickens

first_imgAug 11, 2005 (CIDRAP News) – Both the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) have said in the past day that Tibet has reported its first cases of avian influenza in poultry.Zhang Zhongjun, an FAO official in the Beijing office, said the China Agriculture Ministry informed his organization of the outbreak this morning, according to the Associated Press (AP). The OIE likewise received notification of the outbreak within the past day (see below).OIE Director-General Bernard Vallat told Reuters it was likely the disease was highly pathogenic so probably represents H5N1 infection, although the actual report from Tibet identified the infection only as H5. The affected farm, near Tibetan capital Lhasa, reported 133 dead chickens.More than 2,600 more birds in the area have been culled as a containment effort, say several sources. In addition, Carolyn Benigno, an FAO animal health officer in Bangkok, told Kyodo News that the infected areas have been sealed off and/or disinfected, plus a vaccination effort has begun.Two other areas of China, the Xinjiang and Qinghai provinces, had previously reported avian flu, the latter resulting in the killing of over 6,000 migratory birds.No human cases of avian flu have been reported in China.See also:OIE notification http://www.oie.int/downld/AVIAN%20INFLUENZA/China%20(Tibet)%20HPAI.pdflast_img read more

US agents seize shipments of fake Tamiflu

first_img Since Roche is the only manufacturer of the drug, generic Tamiflu doesn’t exist, said David Elder, head of the Food and Drug Adminstration’s Office of Enforcement, as quoted by Agence France-Presse (AFP). Information on the packages was in Chinese, but it was unclear where the drugs came from, Elder reported. Asian suppliers sent them to individuals who ordered them online, Roxanne Hercules of US Customs and Border Protection told the AP. He added, “There’s been so much excitement about stockpiling of antivirals, that this is going to be the silver bullet, this is going to be the solution to the whole problem. There are uncertainties we have to start communicating, and we haven’t done that.” Stohr said studies show the drug protects about 70% of people from the flu if they take it before being infected, but only about 40% benefit it they take the drug within 48 hours after infection. Nations are investing far more in stockpiling Tamiflu than in developing vaccines that might offer protection from a pandemic virus, Klaus Stohr, head of the WHO’s global influenza program, told Bloomberg in an interview in Washington, DC. “These are people who are trying to profit from heightened concerns about bird flu in this country,” Elder said. Customs officials said the first package was intercepted Nov 26 at a mail facility near San Francisco International Airport, the Associated Press (AP) reported. Agents have seized 51 more packages since then, each containing up to 50 counterfeit capsules labeled as “generic Tamiflu,” the report said. Dec 20, 2005 (CIDRAP News) – US customs agents have seized more than 50 shipments of fake oseltamivir (Tamiflu), the antiviral drug being stockpiled in preparation for a possible influenza pandemic, according to reports published yesterday. “Globally it’s unbalanced,” Stohr said. “There would be more bang for the buck if more were invested globally in pandemic vaccine development.” The capsules contained none of oseltamivir’s active ingredients, and officials were running tests to learn what they did contain, the AP reported. Elder said initial tests pointed to vitamin C. In related news, the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) top flu expert warned Dec 16 that governments are counting too heavily on Tamiflu to protect their populations from a flu pandemic, according to Bloomberg News. “At this point, we haven’t found anything harmful,” Elder told AFP. “The harm comes from people believing they are being protected from the flu. They are not getting the benefit they expect.” In November President Bush asked Congress for $1 billion to spend on antiviral drugs, as part of his $7.1 billion request for pandemic preparedness. This week the House voted to appropriate $3.8 billion for pandemic preparations, but left it to the administration to decide how much of that to spend on antivirals. The House-passed bill was awaiting action by the Senate.last_img read more

China reports 11th human case of avian flu

first_imgFeb 8, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – Chinese officials today reported the country’s 11th human case of H5N1 avian influenza, in a 26-year-old woman from an area where no poultry outbreaks have been reported, according to news services.The woman, surnamed Lin, is from Zhangpu County in Fujian province, according to an Agence France-Presse report today. She tested positive for the virus after being hospitalized Jan 10 with fever and pneumonia, AFP reported, citing the Chinese news service Xinhua as its source.In addition, China announced its first new poultry outbreak in a month has occurred in the northern province of Shanxi, Bloomberg News reported today. The deaths of about 15,000 chickens on Feb 2 and 3 led to culling of 187,000, the Associated Press (AP) reported. The Chinese government told the AP it has killed about 22.5 million birds in the past year in efforts to stop the H5N1 virus.In Iraq, meanwhile, a World Health Organization (WHO) team is investigating the situation in the north, where one human case has been confirmed and more are suspected, and a possible human case has been reported in the south.A 15-year-old girl who died Jan 17 had the country’s first confirmed case. Samples from her 39-year-old uncle, who died Jan 27, tested positive in a local laboratory, and confirmatory test results are awaited.In an update yesterday, the WHO said its team in northern Iraq was seeking ways to strengthen local capacity to test for H5N1 and to hasten sample shipment to WHO labs, because transporting patient samples to outside labs has proved difficult. In addition, biosafety standards in local and national laboratories must be improved, the agency said.Major poultry culling efforts were under way in the outbreak region. Culling teams traveled from house to house in the Kurdish north, “chasing chickens, ducks, geese and turkeys around backyards and stuffing them into bags as villagers looked on,” Reuters news service reported yesterday.The WHO said more capacity for poultry testing is needed in order to focus the culling. Training is under way to improve veterinary labs and surveillance.Authorities who initially thought the H5N1 outbreak might be confined to Kurdish northern Iraq are facing the possibility of a human case in Omara in southern Iraq. A 13-year-old boy fell ill on Feb 1 and died Feb 5 of severe pneumonia, the WHO said. No poultry deaths have been reported in the area, but pet birds in the victim’s home died around the time the boy fell ill.Reports about the suspected case conflicted. An AP report published yesterday described the victim as a 14-year-old named Muhannad Radhi Zaouri, but a Reuters report listed him as a 24-year-old.Police cars and ambulances traversed Omara today, and people used loudspeakers to notify residents to kill their birds, Reuters reported. In addition, mosques were issuing warnings to residents to cull their poultry.In Hong Kong today, authorities banned the raising of chickens, ducks, geese, pigeons, and quail in backyards, in an effort to prevent the spread of H5N1, Bloomberg News reported. Residents will be fined up to US $12,900 for violating the rule, which takes effect Feb 13. The decision came in the wake of news that a fifth bird had tested positive for the H5N1 virus in Hong Kong.See also: WHO statement on Iraq investigationhttp://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_02_07/en/index.htmllast_img read more

USDA closes probe into Alabama BSE case

first_imgMay 8, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – US officials have closed the investigation into the nation’s latest case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), or mad cow disease, without finding the infected cow’s origins.John Clifford, the US Department of Agriculture’s chief veterinary officer, announced the end of the investigation into the Alabama case on May 2.The USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) had been trying to learn since mid-March where the Alabama cow came from so it could trace other cattle that might have been exposed to the same feed the cow ate in early years. Cattle are believed to contract the disease by eating contaminated feed.”APHIS’s investigation did not reveal the BSE-positive animal’s herd of origin,” Clifford said in a written statement. “However, this was not entirely unexpected due to the age of the animal, along with its lack of identifying brands, tattoos and tags. Experience worldwide has shown that it is highly unusual to find BSE in more than one animal in a herd or an infected animal’s offspring.”The cow, described as a red crossbreed, was euthanized and tested in March after it was found unable to walk. After a veterinarian took a sample for testing, the cow was buried on the farm, but officials later dug up the carcass to determine its age. They concluded that it was more than 10 years old and therefore was born before the government’s 1997 ban on use of cattle protein in feed for cattle and other ruminant animals.Clifford said APHIS and Alabama officials investigated 36 farms and five auction houses and conducted DNA tests in a hunt for relatives of the infected cow. They found none besides than the cow’s two latest calves. The most recent calf was found on the same farm as its mother and is now being held for observation at APHIS’s national laboratory in Ames, Iowa. The other calf died last year, he said. An Associated Press report said that calf was buried in a landfill.The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) investigated feed mills that might have supplied feed to the cow after the 1997 feed ban, Clifford reported. “This investigation found that all local feed mills that handle prohibited material have been and continue to be in compliance with the FDA’s feed ban,” he said.The Alabama cow was the nation’s third BSE case. On the basis of tests of more than 700,000 cattle over the past 2 years, the USDA recently estimated that another four to seven cases could exist in the United States.See also:May 2 statement by John Clifford of USDAMar 13 CIDRAP News story “Alabama cow positive for BSE”last_img read more